“Doomsday Clock” Ticks Closer to Midnight

raquelgoulartra
6 hours ago
2 min read

This article is published in collaboration with Statista

by Anna Fleck

The hands of the symbolic Doomsday Clock now stand at 85 seconds to midnight - closer to global catastrophe than ever before. The Doomsday Clock, or the Nuclear War Clock, represents how close we are veering towards global disaster at the hands of humans. According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the decision to move the clock forward from 89 to 85 seconds reflects escalating threats from nuclear weapons, accelerating climate change and the potential misuse of emerging technologies. As Steve Fetter, a member of the Bulletin's Science and Security Board, explains: “In every area, we have failed to take the steps that are necessary to reduce risks and there are new developments in every area that make the risks greater.”

At the announcement of the new setting, Bulletin representatives highlighted how the last remaining treaty governing nuclear weapons stockpiles between the United States and Russia is due to expire next week. This means that for the first time in over half a century, there will be nothing preventing a “runaway” nuclear arms race. The scientists also voiced concern about the global rise of autocracies and how AI is “supercharging" mis- and disinformation.

It is believed that artificial intelligence could undermine nuclear deterrence in several ways. According to the Future of Life Institute, an international thinktank focused on existential risks from transformative technologies, this could include increased risk of error based on disinformation, as well as the fact that faster, AI-driven judgments may leave little time to verify information before irreversible actions are taken.

Despite these warnings, the Bulletin urges that the public has power beyond the ballot box. Citizens, it argues, can also to take the opportunity to become more informed about these risks and to drive policy by showing political interest in their local districts.

Looking further back, the Doomsday Clock was first set below the two-minute mark (at "100 seconds" to midnight) in 2020. That shift cited the Covid-19 pandemic, advancing climate change, the spread of fake news and a worsening geopolitical instability. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine later intensified these concerns, prompting researchers to advance the Doomsday Clock from 107 to 90 seconds (1.5 minutes) before midnight in early 2023.

As this chart shows, 1953 was also considered a year of heightened tensions, when the U.S. and the USSR had tested hydrogen bombs. Notably, however, the threat of catastrophe from the so-called Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) is not reflected on the clock. This is likely because the issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published near the time came out in November/December 1962, after the immediate danger of the crisis had largely subsided.

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